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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0274

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 28 17:10:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 281708
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281707=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-281830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0274
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1207 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281707Z - 281830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Some increase in the tornado threat is expected this
    afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A small supercell has evolved late this morning across
    Newton County, TX, with additional redevelopment noted to the
    east/northeast of Houston. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s
    F across western LA, and similar warming will be possible this
    afternoon across southeast TX outside of ongoing convective
    development. This warming will allow MLCAPE to approach 1000 J/kg.=20

    Meanwhile, low-level flow remains rather strong on area VWPs, with
    backed surface winds supporting 0-1 km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. With
    continued destabilization, the favorable low-level SRH will support
    some increase in the tornado threat into the afternoon, both with
    the ongoing supercell, and with additional supercellular development
    that may evolve out of ongoing convection across southeast TX. Given
    the potential for a couple tornadoes within a focused mesoscale
    corridor, Tornado Watch issuance is possible early this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Rdak2Au21WsdIj-utEQM7MFugqBjO-O2fZPXbQOvWP0x2CyyqzKQ_7C2eBSybFeUdJxK7AIT= 1eP1Mr14hnHgoogfcI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29739412 29959478 31329484 32049436 32289361 32179312
    31799290 31129297 30189296 29879309 29799370 29739412=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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