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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0276

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Mar 28 20:29:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 282027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282027=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-282200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0276
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of east TX/western LA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...

    Valid 282027Z - 282200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado or two and locally damaging
    gusts may persist through the remainder of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...One small but long-lived supercell has shown signs of
    weakening to the southeast of Shreveport, with other transient
    supercells noted from east TX into far western LA over the last 1-2
    hours. While most of these cells have apparently remained sub-severe
    thus far, the KSHV/KPOE/KLCH VWPs continue to depict rather strong
    southerly low-level flow and modestly favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH for
    at least a low probability tornado/wind threat. However, generally
    weak midlevel lapse rates and only relatively modest deep-layer
    shear could continue to limit storm organization to some extent. A
    tornado or two and/or localized damaging gusts remain possible with
    the ongoing storm cluster near the Sabine River through the
    remainder of the afternoon, and some threat could extend just north
    of WW 66.

    Farther southwest, some increase in low-level flow has been noted on
    the KHGX VWP, and deep convection continues to increase immediately
    in advance of a midlevel vorticity maximum approaching east-central
    TX. A modest increase in storm organization across this area could
    result in a threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado
    in and near the southwestern portion of WW 66 through the remainder
    of the afternoon.

    ..Dean.. 03/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OxNpTM8WxwjKBlCfU6EW1QkVoTgR5Tk1k-RvG24WLsaOBOOuYYWvn4Fwv7-n2KyqY7Ozs3SG= CwK6qh7HqMFMFfQF8k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29959320 29679352 29429455 28799549 29409535 29619534
    29869552 30419509 31179471 31919466 32489445 33049429
    32949334 32479323 32049313 31539302 30999292 30509303
    29959320=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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