ACUS11 KWNS 282232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282231=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-290030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...East Texas...Western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...

Valid 282231Z - 290030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will likely
continue for another hour or two. After the 00Z expiration of WW 66,
a lingering severe threat will be possible, which could necessitate
a local weather watch extension.

DISCUSSION...The latest satellite imagery and RAP analysis show a
mid-level trough over the central Texas, with several vorticity
maxima located from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Large-scale ascent associated with the vorticity maxima will
continue to support scattered thunderstorm development across the
Sabine River Valley early this evening. The RAP is analyzing an axis
of instability over far east Texas where SBCAPE is estimated around
1000 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP is showing a low to mid-level
jet over western and central Louisiana. This feature appears to be
sampled by the Lake Charles and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs which have
30 to 35 knots of 0-6 km shear and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
around 250 m2/s2. This environment should support an isolated
tornado threat with supercells over the next one to two hours. Any
supercell could also be capable of producing isolated severe gusts.

..Broyles.. 03/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9q8QzsIFxOwnW34_hP2cI1zwzEUPUqvis45UzA9zhaPACjf2lgmLZ3_KDqf8rJII4iUvUaR8w= bSc8buYYGNQf-GnvfU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30119472 29959432 29989359 30189326 30549308 31759315
32569330 32899350 32959393 32789427 32389451 31779469
31009480 30429484 30119472=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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