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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0279

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 29 00:29:35 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290026
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290025=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0279
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0725 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...far northwest...Iowa...and far
    northeast Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290025Z - 290230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms capable of producing
    locally damaging wind gusts (around 60 mph) and marginally severe
    hail (around 1 inch) are possible through around 03Z.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front extending from southern MN
    into far northeast IA and northeast NE. Earlier diurnal heating
    beneath an EML plume has resulted in steep deep-layer lapse rates
    and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the front. While instability is
    marginal, 30-40 kt of effective shear oriented parallel/oblique to
    the surface front will support small, loosely organized clusters
    capable of producing locally damaging winds gusts (around 60 mph)
    and marginally severe hail (around 1 inch) for the next few hours.
    Given the flow orientation to the southeastward-moving cold front,
    there may be a tendency for upscale growth into a line, before being
    undercut by the front. Therefore, any severe risk is expected to
    remain fairly brief (through around 02-03Z).

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4JcL-k9g5555nG_kfugzKIl5fH2Yr0rv6MevBNz2KCwzSabnqOpTdeUWLvjY2kjauUH1Q6Zmf= kJhog5TRN_6OAS3Czk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42769743 43589589 44159453 44619270 44539214 44099222
    43649401 43249506 42339688 42489738 42769743=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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