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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0287

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 00:54:01 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 300052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300052=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0287
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0752 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
    Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 300052Z - 300315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with potential for hail and
    severe gusts, may develop across parts of the lower to mid Missouri
    Valley this evening. The threat is expected to be too marginal for
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over
    far northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending across Iowa. A
    cold front is moving eastward across eastern Kansas. Low-level
    convergence is focused along and near these two boundaries, which
    will support convective development this evening. An instability
    axis is analyzed by the RAP ahead of a cold front from eastern
    Kansas into far southwest Iowa. Along this axis, surface dewpoints
    in the 55 to 60 F range are contributing MLCAPE between 1000 to 1500
    J/kg, according to the RAP. RAP forecast soundings early this
    evening near the instability axis have effective shear between 35
    and 45 knots. This may support a severe potential, with isolated
    severe gusts and hail as the primary threats. However, forecast
    soundings also have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. The poor
    lapse rates should keep any severe threat marginal.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LxaPPUBtfzMZjkl7d4jl6FDlqon6j02kjgP3ucfG-cUdlhy2LtqOBQlLIciIgzgE5Ks22MQr= jt6b5tDFnWuHBp2x-o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 41229598 42089500 42619324 42589242 42359219 41809221
    41089253 39399360 38899403 38689454 38669520 38809582
    39249625 39839639 40469632 41229598=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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