ACUS11 KWNS 300824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300823=20
TXZ000-301030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...portions of north/central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 300823Z - 301030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible into early morning across
portions of north/central Texas.

DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is developing within the
core of the upper level jet streak across parts of north/central
Texas. This area is also within a weak baroclinic zone and area of
low-level confluence. Latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
show moderate instability (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), aided by steep
midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. Additionally, supercell wind
profiles and 50+ kt effective shear will likely support organized
cells. With the main area of large-scale ascent gradually lifting
northeast of the region, convection is expected to remain rather
isolated. Nevertheless, the environment will support storms capable
of producing large hail. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6fRK1h2SerJ15dpzpNUeuPdYDMDGtD9s_GOq6W17KJxW3SpyLzE-2Mti8maG9YE_I9bstnwKx= 0B8U-W91-YnScjlJGA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31279897 32039870 32539787 32519689 32309618 32029569
31409555 31029578 30799632 30749760 30739860 31219903
31279897=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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