ACUS11 KWNS 301447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301447=20
TXZ000-301645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central Texas/Brazos Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301447Z - 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe storms may occur and
occasionally produce large hail this morning.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection within central Texas has
occasionally pulsed in intensity over the last hour or so. This
activity, likely elevated, is driven by weak low-level warm
advection. Given the very steep mid-level lapse rates (observed in
this mornings regional sounding data) and modest influence from a
shortwave trough to the north, storms that can persist may produce
large hail. However, low-level warm advection is expected to weaken
over the next few hours and the coverage of storms is not expected
to be more than isolated. Additional stronger storms appear more
probable later in the afternoon. A watch is not currently
anticipated for this early day activity.

..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-qI02SKuq1ZcKaASOQuqLp1JjazDxsZuCv2LDJtqb4FTe_MbB9diK5OUBgP0UEb-VmUlB9bb7= g8OmXzm_u_d-8ocX9g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30559812 30839848 31139856 31399840 31599784 31629658
31329568 30639558 30299613 30559812=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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