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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0296

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 16:05:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301604
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301604=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-301800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0296
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1104 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...East-central/southeast Missouri...southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 301604Z - 301800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed, particularly for areas near
    and east of the Mississippi River. All severe hazards are possible
    with a mix of linear segments and supercells.

    DISCUSSION...A prominent shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
    imagery in central Missouri. Tied to this feature, weak convection
    has been slowly deepening in parts of eastern Missouri as it moves northeastward. Downstream of this, temperatures in southern/central
    Illinois have risen into the low 70s F given the more broken cloud
    cover. The general consensus of short-term CAM guidance is that
    convection will strengthen in the vicinity of the Mississippi River.
    This seems reasonable given current environmental trends. That being
    said, the need for a watch in the short term is not entirely
    certain. Potential for a watch in the next couple of hours,
    particularly for portions of southern Illinois, are higher than
    points to the west.

    Storm mode is expected to be a mix of linear segments, especially
    with northward extent, and some supercells (more likely towards the
    Ohio Valley). Steep mid-level lapse rates will support large to
    very-large hail with initial or sustained supercells. Fast moving
    storms and enhanced low-level flow will promote swaths of wind
    damage. The tornado threat is somewhat less clear, but will be
    maximized with any discrete storms. Line-embedded circulations/QLCS
    tornadoes are also possible given sufficient low-level hodograph
    curvature. A strong tornado or two could occur.

    A watch will likely be needed by early afternoon. Exact timing is
    not clear and some locations west of the River may not destabilize
    enough in the short term for an organized severe threat.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7txJ4zHgMXzI-jQVfpFXDT2bLJEiOHo_7PRA3ZYFaMB5l4ris7HRoNZGY4_uUIQ3Silwmxvt6= xYWGaEJAlPDkGTLuTg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

    LAT...LON 37079078 37259107 37579124 38099134 38649120 39069083
    39749035 40118977 40188936 40118870 39698827 38438813
    37738856 37128987 37079078=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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