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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0299

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 17:45:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301743
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301743=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-301945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0299
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast Illinois...northern
    Indiana...southwest Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 301743Z - 301945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with storms this
    afternoon. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado threat is
    less certain, but a few line-embedded circulations do appear
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures in northeast Illinois into northern
    Indiana have risen into the low/mid 70s F. Cumulus along the cold
    front has deepened in northeast Illinois and storms appear likely to
    initiate as the shortwave trough moves through the region. In
    addition, some portion of the activity in central Illinois will move northeastward into parts of northern Indiana.

    Destabilization should continue through the afternoon, particularly
    in northern Indiana into southern Lower Michigan. MLCAPE in
    northeast Illinois is 500-750 J/kg and it is not clear how much more
    buoyancy will develop before the fast moving storms move through.
    The greatest risk will be strong/damaging wind gusts with what is
    expected to be one or more linear segments. Large hail is possible,
    but should be more spatially limited given storm mode. The tornado
    threat is less clear this far north. Low-level winds are veered and
    effective SRH values from objective mesoanalysis and regional VAD
    profiles is not large. However, the QLCS tornado threat is nonzero
    as line-embedded circulations are certainly possible. A watch is
    likely this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gO9vf2T4F-R-dbXFezWKc7asDIy63Ay4Qoc6FwXRnMZ9Q63BiZNWFzV99XjmGnVOVSr8MJXA= cUL94_EzdEOA_E7t6Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 40848645 40448774 40378826 40878876 41708893 41928887
    42328804 42768640 42598582 41918550 40948614 40848645=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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