1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0300

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 18:41:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301841=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-302045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0141 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas...southern
    Missouri...western Tennessee...western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 301841Z - 302045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for storms in portions of
    the Mid-South, including the potential for discrete supercells.
    Tornadoes (some strong), very large hail, and severe gusts are all
    possible. A tornado watch is likely this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...With the cold front beginning to move southeastward in
    Missouri, storm development along it can be expected as it
    encounters greater low-level moisture. Some of the activity in
    southeastern Missouri may be discrete at least for some period of
    time. Of greater concern will be storms that develop in
    western/central Arkansas. There, the surge of the cold front through
    Oklahoma has allowed a slightly more favorable boundary/shear vector orientation. Recent short-term model guidance has continued to show
    a signal for storm development in these areas. These storms would
    have greater potential to be discrete and remain so for a longer
    duration. With the stronger low-level flow lifting north, the
    tornado threat may initially be lower. However, discrete storms that
    persist into the evening will have increasing tornado potential
    (including strong tornadoes) as the low-level jet increases in the
    Mid-South.

    The 18Z observed Little Rock, AR sounding showed very steep
    mid-level lapse rates, 45 kts of effective shear, and a remaining
    capping inversion. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail
    and severe gusts would be possible. Though cumulus continues to
    steadily deepen in the region, it may take another hour or two for
    storms to initiate. Subtle mid-level ascent in Oklahoma will pivot
    into the region and should assist in this process. A tornado watch
    is likely later this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4WzEG8qlXw2T78AZ9B92hNlYm136Sg5Cu45L68JzA15PV-yQrOYXroKMcC35b3bWzFAKYW8Su= i5WtpNg3aVXK-PHZLM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34959359 34959389 35309378 36449303 36759281 37059233
    37119212 37298974 37148906 36998863 36478854 35908887
    35219177 35079275 34959359=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)