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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0303

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 19:12:53 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301909
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301909=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0303
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...The northern Gulf Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301909Z - 302115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for brief tornadoes may continue through the
    late afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, training convection has
    been continually developing along the northern Gulf Coast along a outflow-reinforced marine boundary. Although a consolidated outflow
    boundary is slowly developing per regional radar imagery, steady
    influx of high low-level theta-e air off the Gulf should promote
    further thunderstorm development through the diurnal heating
    maximum. Weakly veering winds through the lowest 2 km (best sampled
    by the KMOB VWP) is supporting sufficient low-level helicity for
    brief mesocyclone development with an attendant tornado risk. This
    potential has already been realized at least once based on a recent
    TDS evident across far southeast MS. Until the sea breeze weakens
    early this evening, strong updrafts with an attendant brief tornado
    threat may continue to develop on the southern periphery of the
    marine/outflow boundary. Given the localized nature of the threat
    watch issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zSZeuMk-FigkpoRrSf1AeF_baU_JDob_lYjtRE-RUOT1r0Pk8QC2qICJX7mUFiaB28G0HUa3= G8sNRdFPFrwVGaMPIs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30868660 30628662 30458675 30318702 30248749 30198797
    30168862 30228920 30048969 30159010 30409025 30709007
    30948958 31098876 31208772 31188706 31088668 30868660=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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