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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0307

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 22:22:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 302221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302220=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0307
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Mid Mississippi Valley

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 72...

    Valid 302220Z - 310015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 72 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across the mid Mississippi
    Valley through early to mid evening. Very large hail, severe wind
    gusts and tornadoes will be possible. Weather watch issuance will
    eventually be needed to the east of the current watches over parts
    of central Kentucky and western Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Paducah shows
    several supercells ongoing along a corridor from far northern
    Arkansas northeastward into southern Illinois. These severe storms
    are located to the west of an axis of moderate instability where the
    RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition,
    the Paducah WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 55 knots with
    pronounced directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This shear
    profile will be favorable for severe storms, and continued supercell development. The steepest mid-level lapse rates are located over far
    southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas, where supercells could
    produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Over the next
    couple of hours, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will increase in
    strength over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. This will make
    low-level shear increasingly favorable for tornadoes, especially as
    the supercells interact with the low-level jet. Eventually, a nearly
    continuous line of storms will become organized into a linear MCS.
    As this line moves eastward into areas near and to the east of the
    Mississippi River, the wind-damage potential is expected to increase
    and wind gusts above 70 mph will become likely along and just ahead
    of the more intense parts of the line.

    ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JNi0194v2SQKSE__XAA-mW1X_3ROtvdnq8MsJrcxGRMr7vZS-pvcCmNq04FbFK5Ev2RSmVjA= UMi-WcCRWkMN96aDXg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

    LAT...LON 34999080 35109139 35439175 35859179 36429157 37199062
    38348831 38568739 38528603 38358532 38098495 37758493
    37418511 36838590 35798807 35248939 35059028 34999080=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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