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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0312

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 01:14:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310113=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-310315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0312
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0813 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Southern half of Ohio...far northeastern
    Kentucky...and far western West Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

    Valid 310113Z - 310315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

    SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe wind gusts and
    mesovortex tornadoes will continue eastward across the southern half
    of Ohio. A local extension of Tornado Watch 76 is warranted, and
    trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch as
    well.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ILN depicts a
    north/south-oriented squall line with embedded mesovorticies
    tracking eastward at around 40 kt across the southern half of Ohio.
    Ahead of the line, the ILN 00Z soundings sampled deep low-level
    moisture and modest lapse rates -- contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
    (higher farther south). Despite the marginal instability, a 40 kt
    low-level jet is favoring a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph
    with around 330 0-1 km/effective SRH (per the 00Z sounding and
    recent VWP data). Given the well-established cold pool and
    moist/high-helicity inflow, severe gusts upwards of 70 mph and
    mesovortex tornadoes remain possible in the near-term. Tornado Watch
    76 will be extended to account for this near-term severe risk, and
    areas farther downstream are being monitored for an additional
    downstream watch. However, storms will eventually be approaching the
    eastern edge of the warm sector, and limited buoyancy will
    eventually limit the severe risk.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nAVox3Yqc8BjP3ZTINntqjODHxc-PdAOyMO_4ECC9Ge6kH8EovcemIGfl08lE3z-P6xd4_JT= mGakprUhoMGmpOnY40$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 39118445 39978413 40308374 40378328 40298208 40038131
    39798108 39238099 38658134 38348164 38338225 38538369
    38748439 39118445=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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