1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0313

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 01:39:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310138
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310137=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-310400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0313
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0837 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Far Northeast
    Louisiana...Western Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 310137Z - 310400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop this evening across parts of
    southeast Arkansas, far Northeast Louisiana and western Kentucky.
    Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
    central Arkansas, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front
    across much of southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
    Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
    This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range,
    estimated by the RAP. Along the western edge of the stronger
    instability, isolated storms have formed about 40 statute miles
    south of Little Rock. The WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km
    shear near 50 knots. This shear environment could support severe
    storm development. However, some question remains whether the
    large-scale forcing is strong enough for upscale growth of
    convection. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates across southeast
    Arkansas and western Mississippi around 7.5 C/km, suggesting that
    the storms could produce isolated large hail. In addition,
    supercells that develop would likely be accompanied by severe wind
    gusts.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5whDnJW82mUQuF5XzluahfH2KG78Uy5CwrTr06Q-gQTDyt0YK_16osZX9SddhMwjxU5EEhsF1= 2qbIqajoXDtN8eK8Kg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34809203 34969139 34909059 34678985 34278960 33578973
    33029004 32769065 32729138 32809208 33009253 33309278
    33959276 34539244 34809203=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)