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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0314

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 02:23:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310220=20
    WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-310445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0314
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 310220Z - 310445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat, with potential for wind damage, tornadoes
    and hail, will likely develop over the next couple of hours across
    parts of eastern Kentucky, far western Virginia and southwest West
    Virginia. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a bowing linear
    MCS across central and western Kentucky. An axis of instability is
    located ahead of the line, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000
    to 1500 J/kg range. Near the instability axis, surface dewpoints are
    in the lower 60s F. The line is being supported by large-scale
    ascent ahead of shortwave trough in the mid Mississippi Valley,
    evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs
    across the Ohio Valley have 0-6 km shear from 50 to 60 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This environment will continue to support a severe threat as the line
    moves eastward across central and eastern Kentucky late this
    evening. Wind damage and hail will be likely with the stronger
    components of the line. A tornado threat will also likely exist with
    rotating cells embedded in the line.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!54mBBBQ-Lj2cMzf7gJTLxEatZ4Arv0RTiTzzwLOm5ZwmhAb_ziClnnirV5IG3nOoYNvTso7n5= --of2S73jLmy6KwCp8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 36568280 36568404 36668459 36898491 37348495 37758493
    38248471 38448451 38578409 38618338 38568237 38508203
    38318172 38038157 37628158 36998178 36658225 36568280=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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