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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0315

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 02:59:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310258=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-310500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0315
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0958 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...East Texas...Northwest Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77...

    Valid 310258Z - 310500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 77
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
    hours across parts of east Texas. Northwest Louisiana will likely be
    affected. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. A
    local watch extension may become necessary.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from
    Shreveport shows a severe convective cluster of east Texas. The
    cluster is located within a moderately unstable airmass, where the
    RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The
    convection is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough,
    which is evident on water vapory over east Texas. The latest
    Shreveport WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear around 40 knots with
    directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL. In addition, RAP forecast
    soundings in far east Texas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
    This will support supercell development, with large hail potential.
    Supercells will also be capable of producing isolated damaging wind
    gusts. The latest short-term model forecasts increase convective
    coverage over east Texas, and move the developing cluster into
    western Louisiana. This will likely be in association with warm air
    advection. For this reason, the severe threat is expected to
    continue into the overnight period.

    ..Broyles.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5a3SAh44B6nlVo0vLTfPOAiFTuv9if9MnmSw7_Q3-xDo8ELyOqniZqEaQz3XXl1HQe7aX9Hsn= 5RD9pyHvpGqG7J_lqs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32699415 32659488 32449535 32259552 32049559 31739559
    31489548 31259516 31159473 31119395 31219311 31419274
    31729257 32089255 32359266 32549302 32689357 32699415=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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