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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0321

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 07:22:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 310722
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310721=20
    NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-310915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...portions of Middle and eastern
    Tennessee...northeast Mississippi...northern and central
    Alabama...and northwest Georgia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...81...82...

    Valid 310721Z - 310915Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78, 81, 82 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for damaging gusts and
    perhaps a tornado or two will continue eastward over the next few
    hours. Downstream watch issuance will likely be needed for parts of
    the region.

    DISCUSSION...The line of severe storms over Middle Tennessee is
    expected to move into Tornado Watch 82 by/near 08z, allowing Tornado
    Watch 78 to expire on time. Tracking ongoing convection over
    northeast MS/northwest AL, this activity also should be close to the
    edge of Tornado Watch 81 near its expiration time of 10z. A new
    watch will likely be needed to cover portions of northeast MS into
    northern AL/northwest GA as additional storm development across
    northern MS/AL is expected, and as ongoing storms shift east the
    remainder of the night.=20

    Sufficient instability and strong deep-layer flow will sustain
    strong to severe convection through the overnight hours. Special 06z
    RAOB from JAN indicates some mild inhibition in the 850-700 mb
    layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and supercell wind
    profiles suggest some continued risk is possible into early morning.
    Tornado potential may be limited by stronger low-level inhibition
    and more modest 0-1 km shear. A new severe thunderstorm watch may be
    needed in the next 1-2 hours to replace portions of Tornado Watch
    81, and to include points downstream across northern and central AL
    into northwest GA.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_iQb9zNJWeNO1obInkMqnRmetXa0pnJ9748EFzO0Dqy_YkRFCXSQSgo5WgQEFdOQt2FegvA9w= svL81vHo5nNZrVHN9U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 36048534 36148448 35818396 35128401 34508448 33618560
    33108652 32938733 33078818 33768846 34188863 34518867
    34718863 35028838 36048534=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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