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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0325

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 13:35:11 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 311335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311334=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-311530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0325
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0834 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central Georgia and the Florida
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 311334Z - 311530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds will continue into Georgia
    and the central/eastern Florida Panhandle. A less certain and
    conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating is ongoing in parts of
    central/southwestern Georgia where cloud cover has been more broken.
    These areas have seen temperatures rise into the low 70s F this
    morning. At least muted surface heating can be expected into the
    afternoon. Observed 12Z soundings from Birmingham/Atlanta show steep
    mid-level lapse rates, but also subsidence in the wake of a weaker
    lead shortwave/MCV. With an upstream shortwave trough now entering
    the Ozarks/Mid-South, additional mid-level ascent should promote
    more favorable thermodynamic profiles with time. Current VAD data
    from the region also shows relatively weak low-level flow. Again, as
    the trough moves into the Southeast, an increase in 850 mb winds is
    expected to occur. Overall, the primary severe threat should remain
    damaging winds. The tornado threat is less certain as, even with an
    increase in low-level winds, forecast hodographs still are rather
    marginal. Nonetheless, a few QLCS tornadoes or perhaps even a warm-advection-driven supercell tornado ahead of the line are still
    possible. A watch will likely be needed this morning as activity
    currently in Alabama and southern Mississippi continues east.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ET62n1bZ8xopRWh_36kHkTit-1Qm0urSiEUCiS6aIpeBDfY0x889gSY6UnIlFvim8uydzn9i= u4GXWA-keNYljjk8fg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 31048593 33328503 34118497 34588476 34698430 34488371
    33598281 31908309 30498418 29818459 29518518 29718592
    30418632 31048593=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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