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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0328

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 18:46:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 311846
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311845=20
    MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-312045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0145 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...Northern North Carolina into Virginia and Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 311845Z - 312045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms across the western Carolinas are
    expected to increase in coverage through late afternoon and early
    evening. Eventual watch issuance into North Carolina and
    Virginia/Maryland is possible as storms grow upscale and pose a more
    widespread wind threat.

    DISCUSSION...Convection across the western Carolinas has shown
    steady intensification over the past hour as lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave/vorticity maximum begins to impinge on higher-quality moisture/buoyancy in the lee of the southern
    Appalachians. Downstream of these storms into northern NC and VA,
    partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid
    70s to low 80s amid a gradual return of low-level moisture. MLCAPE
    values around 500 J/kg are already in place across north-central
    NC/VA based on an observed 18z GSO sounding adjusted for observed temperature/dewpoints further east into the warm sector. This
    sounding and regional VWPs are also sampling 30-40 knot flow within
    the lowest few kilometers and sufficient deep-layer shear to promote
    loosely organized convection. The expectation is that convective
    coverage should slowly increase over the next 1-2 hours across
    western NC/southwest VA with gradual upscale growth. As this occurs,
    a damaging wind threat should eventually materialize as storms move
    into the more deeply mixed environment across north-central
    NC/central VA where dewpoint depressions are approaching 20-25 F.
    Precisely when storm coverage/organization is sufficiently
    widespread to warrant watch issuance remains somewhat uncertain, but
    convective trends will continue to be monitored.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91Tj2Zxb3TXLkfSGhHWAPdBTdNGG95w6Ij3BOVtEQOIIOe9LsOfYxPU4tiYvYJs2ytMtJlWuV= q_UQDUYYluaEhr_6cE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

    LAT...LON 35357946 35248050 35188116 35218155 35418184 35768195
    36078188 36408167 36788112 37438000 37677943 38477778
    38827668 38877614 38647572 38307556 37847555 37257562
    36967563 36597574 36287620 36067680 35567847 35357946=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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