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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 19:34:15 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 311934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311933=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-312130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Virginia into central Maryland...southeast Pennsylvania...and northwest New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 311933Z - 312130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected within the next
    couple of hours across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. The
    convective environment should support a damaging wind threat into
    the evening hours. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past few hours, GOES visible imagery has shown
    a gradual increase in agitated cumulus within a deepening trough
    axis in the lee of the central Appalachians. Steady diurnal heating
    under broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to warm into the
    upper 70s to low 80s - a few degrees warmer than anticipated by
    recent guidance, which suggests that thunderstorm initiation should
    become increasingly probable in the next couple of hours. Buoyancy
    on the northern periphery of returning moisture appears to be meager
    due to somewhat poor mid-level lapse rates and overall low quality
    moisture. This will modulate updraft intensities to some degree, but
    strong speed shear noted in upstream VWPs should help promote
    longevity of initially semi-discrete cells. Mean wind and deep-layer
    shear vectors oriented along the lee trough axis will likely promote
    upscale growth with time and perhaps an increasing damaging wind
    threat as cold pools amalgamate within an environment featuring
    low-level lapse rates between 7-8 C/km. Convective trends will
    continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if/when
    thunderstorm development becomes more imminent and storm coverage
    becomes sufficient for a more widespread threat across the region.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gd4_qbYhV5wLm5FHC6EcoGJxizlyZ9of1j0EFae7vQ1hMoC6J8gHuxZ15RUvUoGZjqxbvEcy= D-O1Ev8hqwVai5lBG4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39367618 38907719 38397825 38347865 38507884 38687899
    38917900 39237878 39507844 39777794 41307567 41467502
    41267454 40897427 40457437 39967509 39367618=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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