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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0331

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 31 22:33:03 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 312232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312231=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-010030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0331
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia and southern Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 312231Z - 010030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern Virginia and southern
    Maryland for an increase in strong/severe storm potential. The
    primary concern would be damaging wind gusts. It is still unclear if
    a watch is needed, though trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is
    advancing east-northeastward across central Virginia -- ahead of a
    broad midlevel trough and related surface front. Ahead of these
    storms, earlier diurnal heating has resulted in upper 70s/lower 80s
    surface temperatures and steep boundary-layer lapse rates (see 18Z
    IAD sounding) amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. Despite this
    low-level destabilization, weak midlevel lapse rates are still
    limiting buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg). Around 40 kt of
    west-southwesterly deep-layer shear oriented perpendicular to the
    band of showers and storms could result in some convective
    organization with eastward extent, and the steep low-level lapse
    rates may promote damaging wind gusts -- depending on how organized
    the cold pool can become. Given the weak buoyancy, it is still
    unclear if a watch is needed, though convective trends are being
    monitored.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7TDgCTqVJZpv7WvoaXCjUSleaSOOTO4LWS0l_u0C-7fWy3ul7m_NHXzQ9ZpEh4L857p48d0Zw= cOkKwinrkAJ-aJAg88$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 36807803 37167825 38377799 38917767 39237716 39277677
    39087599 38727572 37807575 36917608 36657657 36707762
    36807803=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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