ACUS11 KWNS 312236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312236=20
TXZ000-010030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...South-Central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 312236Z - 010030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with very isolated storms that develop
across south central Texas early this evening. Severe thunderstorm
watch does not appear warranted.
DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging
east-southeast across far West TX early this evening. This feature
is approaching the back edge of higher PW air mass that has been
shunted into south central TX. Latest diagnostic data suggests the
boundary is draped across the San Antonio metro to north of Hondo.
Surface temperatures have warmed well into the 90s south of the
front and convective temperatures have been breached along this zone
of low-level confluence. As a result, a few thunderstorms have
recently developed and there is adequate deep-layer flow for
sustaining robust updrafts. Latest radar data suggests hail is
likely occurring with this activity and this may continue for the
next few hours, possibly sagging south before nocturnal cooling
contributes to weakening updrafts. A severe thunderstorm watch does
not appear warranted.
..Darrow/Mosier.. 03/31/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_BFVTh-W24w3YacW2B64GYeNt6PZEjCawAUyr45AvdI7C04ftOMTmXXMYXfUYa2jVfOs1RVtl= Yx9lV-BpjDIwafQkME$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29799920 29649846 28799857 28759928 29519969 29799920=20
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
=3D =3D =3D
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