ACUS11 KWNS 012000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012000=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-012230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012000Z - 012230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorm development is anticipated across
northwest Kansas in the next 1-2 hours. The severe threat associated
with these storms will increase as they move into central Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Watch issuance is probable by early evening
for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows building, high-based cumulus
developing along/just behind the dryline in northwest Kansas. Based
on current temperature/dewpoint observations and recent forecast
soundings, this convection will likely remain somewhat shallow with
limited buoyancy (around 250 MUCAPE). However, very dry
boundary-layer conditions may promote sporadic strong downburst
winds with this initial convection. With time, this activity is
expected to spread east and impinge on a theta-e axis building
downstream across north-central KS into south-central NE. This will
promote intensification with an attendant increase in severe wind
and large hail potential as the deepening convection begins to be
influenced by strong mid/upper-level flow. A supercell or two may
emerge from this activity later this evening and could pose a
large/very-large hail threat. The tornado threat associated with any established supercells is expected to remain limited until later
this evening when richer moisture returns into the region. Watch
issuance is probable by early evening to address these concerns.

..Moore/Smith.. 04/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_yJQznUAEePUaW4S9meKRhcOWioYuwRvh7B1p7AIFNgNdsaBz6DEDdkxj-abVYAAvX_hgGVD5= aC3nG_DkgyWqiLEoUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 40580004 40639915 40509858 40229806 39849765 39369751
38969757 38499783 38359832 38339885 38429937 38569976
38669985 39049999 39580053 39780087 40180102 40470075
40580004=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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