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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0336

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Apr 1 20:17:53 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 012017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012017=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-012215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0336
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Areas affected...Western into central Oklahoma and western North
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012017Z - 012215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Cumulus activity is increasing on the dryline in western
    Oklahoma. This area is being monitored for storm initiation.
    Supercells capable of large/very-large hail, tornadoes (possibly
    strong), and severe gusts are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues in the southern Plains this
    afternoon. Low 60s F dewpoints have reached the Red River/southern
    Oklahoma. Mid 60s F dewpoints lag farther south in the DFW
    Metroplex. Cumulus have become more numerous in southwest Oklahoma
    and recent Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows a few towers
    occasionally deepening. While this activity is currently developing
    within upper 50s F dewpoints, greater moisture resides to the east.

    Storm initiation timing is a bit uncertain, especially given the
    filtered insolation through a cirrus canopy. However, most guidance
    has shown initiation after 22-23Z. Storm coverage remains a
    question. These uncertainties are primarily driven by the
    late-arriving moisture return. Mid-level ascent will remain quite
    modest until after dark. However, the wind profile strongly supports
    discrete supercells with an attendant risk for large/very-large hail
    and tornadoes. A strong tornado is certainly possible in this
    environment and would become more likely if a mature storm moves
    into increasing low-level moisture to the east. Low-level theta-e
    advection should slow/offset the increase in nocturnal CIN.

    Once there is more clarity on initiation timing and storm coverage,
    a watch will be needed later this afternoon/early evening.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/01/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LnocSLZ7kLaJEhMdrroXSdkJu10EmgoxB4B7vZjHeBdYD8p7TeHNyCgFfEOJRhlzE24Of4CK= GvKaEqyf6sHFqTUcio$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35289729 33809795 33509873 33569950 33669990 34099982
    34569970 35389946 36799922 36939853 36939788 36489750
    35289729=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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