ACUS11 KWNS 012338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012338=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-020115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...North Central Kansas into Southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 012338Z - 020115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening, hail is
the primary risk with this activity; although, there is some risk
for a tornado. A watch is being considered for this scenario.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is currently ejecting
northeast into the central Plains, well ahead of the primary long
wave over the western U.S. Surface low is beginning to respond to
this feature over southwestern KS, and subsequent movement is
expected toward central KS later tonight. Higher PW air mass is
gradually advancing north with 50F surface dew points now to the NE
border just north of CNK.

Latest radar/satellite imagery depict scattered high-based
convection ahead of the short wave from southwestern KS to west of
Hebron NE. Over the last half hour, or so, updrafts have deepened
such that lightning is now occurring with this lead activity over
southern NE. LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across eastern KS
later this evening which will encourage further moistening and
destabilization. Latest thinking is this activity should gradually
strengthen as profiles moisten, aided in part by the short wave and
surging cold front. While initial convection may be high-based, as
dew points rise to near 60F, there is some concern for the
possibility of a tornado. Even so, hail should be the main concern.

..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FfLjF83UGZvIc48Vw0vEZxuEByim-XRUAQ_X839zI27U1yaGrHvi4f2vNTZNfvfjkEl6rNZz= LUH295ycGj2ICE-488$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39019894 40199772 40279649 39569658 38519820 39019894=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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