ACUS11 KWNS 012356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012356=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma and extreme northwest Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

Valid 012356Z - 020200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

SUMMARY...Splitting supercells initially with a risk of very large
hail and severe gusts. The tornado risk will gradually increase with
time and northeastward extent.

DISCUSSION...Splitting supercells are evolving ahead of the dryline
along the Red River in southwest OK and extreme northwest TX. These
storms are in an environment characterized by 50 kt of 0-6 km shear
with a mostly straight hodograph (per FDR VWP data). Given weak
large-scale forcing for ascent, this will continue to promote discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells with a risk of very
large hail and locally severe gusts. With time, a strengthening
low-level jet will support enlarging clockwise-turning low-level
hodographs (effective SRH upwards of 600-700 m2/s2). This will favor
a transition to dominant right-moving supercells with an increasing
risk of tornadoes. With lower 60s F dewpoints in place, and the
expectation for a discrete/semi-discrete mode, a strong tornado will
be possible.

..Weinman.. 04/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HARmsPA5w5JtExMXu95EWFfK5e0C-1so-niVPWaNkhJa6D2bTvr4AQ2WWb2iRisyORlNqtVH= StRgzBTNjt4jjS-Uyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 34189899 35019865 35209835 35229795 35189744 34939712
34639709 34299739 33969812 33859870 33999894 34189899=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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