ACUS11 KWNS 020404
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020403=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

Valid 020403Z - 020600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
continues.

SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe will sag southeast across
central/eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Surface low has been dislodged off the higher terrain
(just northwest of Woodward OK) and will soon begin to eject
northeast toward northwest MO, in response to a strong mid-level
jet. Downstream, LLJ continues to increase ahead of this feature and
1km flow is now on the order of 60-70kt from central OK into eastern
KS. 03z sounding from OUN verifies this with 60kt at 850mb, and 0-3
SRH around 800 m2/s2. Intense low-level warm advection will continue
to focus across eastern portions of the central Plains into the
lower MO River Valley. Capping remains significant across OK and
this likely contributed to the early demise of dryline activity by
mid evening. For this reason, frontal convergence, along with warm
advection, will be the primary forcing mechanisms for convection
through the pre-dawn hours.

Latest radar imagery suggests frontal convection continues to
mature, and earlier discrete (including a few supercells) convection
is becoming more linear with time. Even so, given the strength of
the wind fields, embedded supercells may continue as the corridor
sags southeast. Hail is expected with the stronger updrafts, and
some wind threat may ultimately evolve if bowing structures can
mature. Additionally, continued moistening suggests inflow parcels
may be near-surface based, which would support a tornado risk with
stronger supercells. If sufficient supercells were to emerge from
this activity a tornado watch may be warranted. However, at this
time a more complex storm mode currently exists.

..Darrow.. 04/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RzaCDYpcU4cJqLD56VJqXyEvTvdbHk7iYCP-Mh9XLWO2XFt1xIhunCd5tUZfGYXDkQNCBRAL= j7pMLnpkZw1E1hgGgI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37669948 39229667 40359515 39889433 38599572 37239877
37669948=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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