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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0345

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 06:28:31 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020628
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020627=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-020830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0345
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern KS into northern and western MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 020627Z - 020830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase downstream
    from WW 92 across portions of eastern KS into northwest MO the next
    few hours. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...An intense low-level jet near 75 kt between 1-2 km, as
    sampled by the KEAX VWP, coupled with strengthening surface winds
    with time will continue to bring increasing dewpoints northward the
    next few hours. Low 60s F dewpoints are noted across southeast KS,
    rapidly approaching the I-70 corridor. This will aid in increasing destabilization ahead of the eastward-advancing surface cold front
    oriented across northeast KS to south-central KS. A mix of linear
    convection and isolated supercells currently along the front will
    continue shifting east/northeast the next few hours, moving into
    northwest MO near 08z. The intense, vertically veering wind profiles
    will support robust convection capable of rotation (both with any
    supercells and within linear convection). Damaging gusts and a few
    tornadoes appear probable into the early morning hours, and a
    tornado watch will be needed for portions of the MCD area.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4OrVoJzk40KGWj72zLfS3NLCD7BnjLJA2wqz2VWDhHSfNrFvNRH-kiHRvAvR1Hd3zQjZVynRW= 0qAkep9AFn91hnXZQ0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 39669525 39799517 40069459 40109385 40119306 40039252
    39259243 38289306 37799391 37719471 37849508 38689505
    39669525=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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