ACUS11 KWNS 020702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020702=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 020702Z - 020900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential, including the potential for a couple of
strong tornadoes, will increase across portions of Oklahoma through
early morning. A tornado watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front oriented from central KS southwest
to the Texas South Plains vicinity will continue to shift southeast
through early morning. Ahead of the front, strong southerly
low-level flow has allow deeper boundary-layer moisture to
overspread the region (mid 60s F dewpoints) beneath an intense
southwesterly low-level jet (near 70 kt). Steep midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer are contributing to strong instability
(2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). A 03z RAOB from OUN did show increased capping
near 850 mb compared to 00z. However, as forcing increases with the
approach of the surface cold front, capping is expected to erode.=20

Latest IR satellite imagery and the Nighttime Microphysics RGB
indicate increasing cumulus ahead of the advancing front.
Additionally, HRRR trends over the past several hours consistently
develop convection as the front impinges on deeper boundary-layer
moisture across OK by 08z. Forecast soundings suggest that at least
some potential for surface-based convection is possible. Given very
large, looping low-level hodographs, tornadoes will be possible with
any supercells or linear segments, in addition to damaging gusts and
potential for very large hail. A tornado watch will likely be needed
for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_kXGkBOpGLwvv_OR2htseU6ScBFmAP46um_tqGJrbSWk5W6CEabFCu9MoEKSo3Xmvd4DZDkIe= 66R_q6OCfmjQpVsxOA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35159911 35909856 36769794 36919751 37019578 36919517
36669494 36219485 35969500 35569539 34419659 34219709
34139799 34189868 34329931 34709934 35159911=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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