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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0347

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 09:31:27 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020931
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020930=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0347
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0430 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO and
    northwest AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 020930Z - 021130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm and tornado potential will increase
    over the next few hours. Damaging gusts and few tornadoes will be
    possible through the morning hours and watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A line of severe storms from southeast KS into
    southwest OK will continue to shift east ahead of a cold front over
    the next few hours. A moistening boundary layer, courtesy of strong
    southerly surface winds and a nearly 70 kt low level jet beneath
    steep midlevel lapse rates will support continued organized
    convection into southwest MO/northwest AR. Regional VWP data and
    RAP-based mesoanalysis shows large, looping hodographs across the
    region. While ongoing convection has largely remained linear, large
    SRH amid these supercell wind profiles will support embedded
    supercells and QLCS tornado potential in addition to severe/damaging
    gusts and hail. A tornado watch will likely be needed across
    portions of the MCD area within the next hour.

    ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-4m2_USUcYU9De_mwGT68tvpqThtnCDTwJGIqgMCjI9skL_CVSnrzlETyQe2hJKXPXaUb31Ft= zCPb7kU17V1hj3lsZE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 38059507 38389351 38379272 37909229 36899213 36389251
    35779347 35669435 35689491 35969514 38059507=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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