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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0351

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 13:31:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 021331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021331=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-021530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0351
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0831 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...Far northeast Indiana and northern/central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021331Z - 021530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible with
    elevated thunderstorms. The eastern/northern extent of the threat
    remains uncertain. A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered convection with a few embedded stronger cells
    are being driven by strong low-level warm advection in parts of
    eastern Indiana into central/northern Ohio. Morning observed
    soundings from ILN and ILX suggest these storms are likely on the
    periphery of the steeper mid-level lapse rate plume. Despite cooler
    surface temperatures, adequate elevated buoyancy and strong shear
    could support occasional storm intensification/organization. A few
    of these storms have produced small to marginally severe hail. The
    main question is whether storms will outpace the elevated buoyancy
    and eventually weaken. Given the strengthening surface/850 mb low
    today, there is at least some potential for storms to maintain some
    intensity farther east. A watch is not currently anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LRqe-jl6rNzv_apXpLUaNnw37_BatLapFEsCFIk6VJr_3veSmrcVntQ2MoZw1L19JwMLOGSO= eGWxTiS6m1mriJQCn4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 41858408 41878114 41718066 41098065 40458120 40168195
    39848335 39838423 40158498 40798547 41268550 41688483
    41858408=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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