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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0358

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 20:18:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022018=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0358
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022018Z - 022215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Portions of the ArkLaTex may see an increase of severe
    risk later this afternoon into the evening. The timing of the watch
    is not certain. All severe hazards appear possible, particularly
    with any discrete storms.

    DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus and some shower activity has been
    noted recently within the ArkLaTex region. MLCAPE has increased to
    2500-3500 J/kg where insolation has been more abundant. Strong shear
    will promote organized supercells capable of all severe hazards. The
    KSHV VAD shows less SRH than areas farther northeast and the
    low-level jet should be shifting farther east this evening. That
    being said, there will be a window late this afternoon/early evening
    where a strong tornado could occur with discrete storms that track
    northeast into greater SRH. A watch will need to be considered for
    parts of northwest Louisiana into southwest Arkansas.

    Along the front in northeast Texas, convection has generally been
    anafrontal and only occasionally pulsed in intensity. Given the
    primary shortwave trough lifting away from the area with time, there
    may not be much push of the front southeastward. Furthermore, cloud
    cover has been present most of today and hindered overall
    destabilization. It is unclear how much severe activity will occur
    in northeast Texas given these factors.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5W-aiqJvQefnAFx-3smzLFj2MKbzqMvQnPAoRRnjih88z0PXiL_d9j6uT-5U7IUJYqU0ssJi9= AKH-OoVsDfBhusTPkE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32239522 32479576 33159599 33539583 33769541 33829513
    34019469 33839398 33179281 32979229 32519220 32099238
    31909298 31909377 31939433 32239522=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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