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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0362

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 23:10:58 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 022309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022309=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-030115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0362
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...parts of middle Tennessee through central Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 022309Z - 030115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe convection, including
    supercells, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes may
    increase through 9-11 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of a watch.

    DISCUSSION...A clustering of discrete thunderstorm development,
    likely supported by forcing associated with broad low-level warm
    advection, and perhaps a weak perturbation within the strong
    southwesterly flow aloft, probably will continue developing
    northeastward within a slowly moistening boundary layer across the
    Mid South into lower Ohio Valley. This activity still appears
    embedded within a broadly anticyclonic low-level regime across
    northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee, but
    the Rapid Refresh suggests that surface pressure falls may lead to
    weak troughing across south central through east central Kentucky by
    01-02Z. It appears that this will coincide with substantive further strengthening of low-level flow (50-70+ kt around 850 mb). If
    inhibition does not become suppressive to convection, with the onset
    of diurnal cooling, the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts
    may increase through mid to late evening.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8h-DzWCvSsm0MLsS3nAdeWSi-dL_CKQskwdZ8Q13hY-0uVkFnHhC1mzpCJDzG7b4hFjEYSgzE= dkO6tNBCnOPYlomh50$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36878779 38178619 38378477 37758348 36328495 35538598
    34958768 36238809 36878779=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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