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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0364

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 3 00:29:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 030027
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030026=20
    MIZ000-030230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0364
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0726 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 030026Z - 030230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage across portions
    of Lower Michigan during the next few hours. The primary concern
    would be isolated severe hail, though locally damaging gusts cannot
    be entirely ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...The latest VWP data from DTX/GRR shows a strengthening
    low-level jet and associated warm advection overspreading Lower MI
    -- to the north of an east/west-oriented warm front across northern
    IN/OH. This will favor an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
    next few hours. The DTX 00Z soundings sampled an environment
    marginally supportive of elevated supercell structures embedded
    within increasing stratiform rain (around 55 kt of effective shear).
    However, marginal elevated buoyancy (880 J/kg MUCAPE) may limit
    updraft intensity to an extent. Nevertheless, the risk of isolated
    severe hail (around 1 inch) should increase during the next few
    hours, and locally damaging winds cannot be entirely ruled out with
    any established supercells -- especially farther south closer to the
    warm front.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Gj7iCExsd1FTypOGvcXhU6Rf_Uq5it0503xoZJTsMhuzMmTG3SuedQ99bKhoOjXMKMfWUmAW= Fvfi6yvxyTpHnnv3i0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41818567 41888640 42298652 42818638 43448545 43948373
    44058285 43808250 42628242 42088289 41818352 41818567=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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