1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0366

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 3 00:46:49 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 030046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030045=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-030245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0366
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0745 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Indiana into western and
    central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 030045Z - 030245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase across eastern
    Indiana into western and central Ohio into the overnight hours.
    Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. A
    Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour (by 0030Z).

    DISCUSSION...Along/south of an east/west-oriented warm front
    extending across northern IN/OH, an expansive warm/moist sector has
    developed (upper 50 to lower 60s dewpoints). Over the next few
    hours, a 70-80-kt low-level jet (and associated warm advection) will
    overspread the warm sector, promoting a rapid increase in
    surface-based thunderstorm development into the overnight hours. The
    00Z ILN sounding sampled fairly steep deep-layer lapse rates and
    around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, along with 40 kt of effective shear and a
    large clockwise-curved hodograph (around 350 m2/s2 effective SRH).
    As storms overspread this environment, they should quickly intensify
    into a mix of supercells and organized bowing line segments --
    capable of tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. A Tornado
    Watch will be issued for parts of the area within the hour (by
    0030Z).

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 04/03/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4I7HpjKP7IVvkJoLsnQV_WSqtjAdijSCUASFgTepPvS6ZE2L92JObBApdR4lgEk73ojEkJ3Qd= Qr7NZtL9v7GFYvPmMk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

    LAT...LON 39208596 40238574 40928480 41508368 41478276 41228193
    40768165 39918200 38908318 38488417 38508488 38838586
    39208596=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)