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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0779

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 14 21:56:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 142156
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142156=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0779
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0456 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

    Areas affected...parts of northeast Colorado and the southern NE
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 142156Z - 142330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based showers and storms moving off the higher
    terrain may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and small hail
    initially. Additional development/upscale growth could occur later
    this evening with a greater severe risk focused over northeast CO
    and southern NE. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
    showed initial high-based convection has developed across the higher
    terrain of northeastern CO and southern WY. Supported predominately
    by broad northeasterly upslope ahead of a cold front, the
    environment across northern CO is not particularity unstable (MUCAPE
    < 500 J/kg) with dewpoints in the low 30s F. However, steep low and
    mid-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km are present. This will
    allow for an isolated severe threat initially, with potential for
    more organized storms later this evening.

    Recent CAM guidance and radar trends suggests an isolated severe
    threat (35-50 kt gusts and small hail) may persist across the I-25
    corridor over the next few hours. Given the potential for outflow
    interactions, additional storm development also appears likely. This
    may eventually result in a more coherent cluster of storms across
    northeastern CO where 40+ kt of deep-layer shear and more buoyancy
    could support greater storm organization. This may favor a greater
    risk for severe winds and hail with an organized cluster/MCS.

    While confidence in initial storm evolution and the resulting severe
    threat is low, some severe risk is likely present. Severe trends
    will continue to be monitored for a possible weather watch.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-bk1K4jlMhdAwn8S9SOn9sXG7f6JJ9QR_hrxlw6hkWa9xa7CZvJFxpQzrE24bTRoCLT11Ife4= Cy96nmoocYoP8JqnzQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39100475 39410540 40470509 41050452 41100447 41570268
    41480197 41000169 40020173 39590229 39380337 39100475=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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