1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0780

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 00:09:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150009=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-150145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0780
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0709 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

    Areas affected...Nebraska...South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

    Valid 150009Z - 150145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue much of the
    evening. Hail and wind remain likely with the the most robust
    convection.

    DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the
    central Plains early this evening. A considerable amount of
    convection has developed along a zone of favorable low-level
    convergence across western/central NE into western SD. Supercells
    are embedded in this activity with storm motions favoring northward
    movement along the zone of low-level convergence. However,
    substantial convection has recently evolved across the high Plains
    from southeast WY into northeast CO. This expanding precip shield is
    forward propagating toward the southwestern portions of ww247. Over
    the next several hours there should be some propensity for the
    southern-most flank of the ongoing convection to begin to advance
    east. Until then, large hail will be the primary risk with
    supercells, while damaging wind threat may increase as the upstream
    convection surges into the southern part of the watch.

    ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yqvYkLB4w9kBWSL9jywpy9ZA6yIhGzneTIGzrTWdF7kbc5_I6S376HzJKs4G452wyqikPcUX= JJ0kCyjLHnISXS_KKI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 40360202 44880120 44889936 40380032 40360202=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)