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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0783

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 06:12:02 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150608=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast SD...northwest
    IA...southwest MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

    Valid 150608Z - 150745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat could spread northeast overnight.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is moving northeastward
    across northeast NE and southeast SD early this morning, downstream
    of a midlevel shortwave trough and possible MCV over north-central
    NE. A rather strong low-level jet (evident on the KOAX and KFSD
    VWPs) and favorable upper-level difluence will help to maintain
    convection through the overnight hours. Moderate buoyancy will
    spread into a larger portion of eastern SD and southwest MN
    overnight, while modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue
    to support organized convection.=20

    The strongest storms within this cluster will continue to be capable
    of producing isolated large hail and strong to locally severe gusts.
    Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible if more organized
    upscale growth occurs overnight, though this potential remains
    uncertain. Also, while the bulk of convection may remain somewhat
    elevated, there remains some conditional potential for
    near-surface-based supercells within the southern part of the
    cluster, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.=20

    With WW 249 scheduled to expire at 3 AM CDT, new watch issuance is
    possible overnight, depending on short-term observational trends.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7RrEtZs3qmlsPgwDv6XEsboiZn_pofW3bq27kljWMyAB5NnqhvzlHUiKBpKxcxEn6TZu6P_ag= AsvB52CZv1dRx6zP6g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41569836 42179845 43439770 44719794 44939635 44539570
    44009534 43049538 42369564 41699654 41569748 41569788
    41569836=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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