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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0784

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 09:05:21 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150904
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150904=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-151030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0784
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0404 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern SD into southwest MN and far
    northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

    Valid 150904Z - 151030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may spread northeast out of WW
    250 with time this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster has evolved into a bowing
    MCS (with embedded cellular elements) from far eastern SD into
    southwest MN, and strong to locally severe gusts have been reported
    over the last hour to the northeast of Sioux Falls, SD. Small
    mesovortices have occasionally been noted along the leading edge of
    the line, and a threat for localized severe gusts could be maximized
    with these features, especially where the outflow has not surged
    ahead of the deeper convection.=20

    The northern portion of the line will tend to move into a cooler and
    less unstable environment with time, though more substantial
    moisture return above the surface could maintain robust elevated
    convection through the early morning. The southern portion of the
    line will be in closer proximity to increasing MLCAPE and weaker
    MLCINH, though lingering near-surface stability may hamper
    reintensification potential.=20=20

    An isolated severe threat may spread northeast out of WW 250 with
    time, though the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6436V_HdBvugD2SNwEjVswXjJ8R7kcW1Tqdlu4Mpvm3uoQEgNXus4DobFLobldMHTC8D0oaYs= AJ8ibr_1XBVsQScJVk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44179616 45139736 45729686 45619575 45459489 45319442
    45059420 44679403 44419403 43999424 43239470 42899540
    42889580 43099623 44179616=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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