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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0785

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 12:23:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151223=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0785
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0723 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast SD...southern MN...extreme northeast
    NE/northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151223Z - 151400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for strong to isolated severe storms may continue
    through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is ongoing this morning
    across south-central MN. This system has persisted longer than most
    guidance would suggest, and is likely being aided by persistent
    moisture transport associated with a strong low-level jet. While
    this system remains relatively disorganized with outflow tending to
    outpace the deeper convection, localized strong wind gusts and hail
    will be possible, especially where new updrafts develop and briefly
    intensify behind the outflow.=20

    To the southwest, renewed storm development is underway across
    southeast SD and far northeast NE, immediately in advance of a
    compact but vigorous midlevel shortwave trough moving across
    north-central NE/south-central SD. Rather strong low-level
    southeasterly flow will maintain moisture transport into the region
    through the morning ahead of a cold front, and development of
    somewhat more organized convection will be possible with time. In
    the short term, convection will tend to be somewhat elevated, but
    could become rooted closer to the surface later this morning,
    especially with southeast extent. Some hail and strong-gust
    potential could evolve if convection is able to deepen and intensify
    within this regime.=20=20

    With the threat expected to remain rather isolated over the next 1-2
    hours, short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely. Trends will
    continue to be monitored for intensification with time this morning.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1KSHZsIp9ofr8FehsWICq-i3jYnGfv_aWtVe5Dh83AufSMfnHjstj8RzTUaZApKjidoiwGux= ix8Albi2KfwmLJpogg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

    LAT...LON 43759861 44979732 45289595 45409490 45409384 45129316
    44599296 44179290 43649334 43539415 43479504 43269575
    42909627 42609653 42449683 42619714 42779752 42999832
    43759861=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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