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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0786

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 17:11:10 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151708=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0786
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Minnesota into
    Northwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151708Z - 151945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of all severe hazards (including
    very large hail and strong tornadoes) are expected this afternoon.
    Timing of storm development is uncertain, but one or more watches
    are likely early this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Potent mid-level ascent continues to lift into southern
    and central Minnesota late this morning. Earlier elevated convection
    north of the Twin Cities has weakened substantially and very minimal
    outflow is evident from that activity. A narrow warm sector is
    lifting ahead of a dryline feature. Despite cloud cover,
    temperatures continue to warm into the low/mid 70s F and cumulus are
    beginning to deepen along the dryline. Given the forcing for ascent,
    initiation of stronger storms within the next 2-3 hours appears
    reasonable and is supported by most recent CAM guidance.

    Strong effective shear across the surface boundaries should support
    at least initially discrete storms. Strong forcing aloft may promote
    some areas of quicker upscale growth into line segments. Mid-level
    lapse rates advecting into the region will support large/very large
    hail. Low-level southeasterly winds will promote large low-level
    hodographs (already evident on the KMPX VAD). Tornadoes, some
    potentially strong, will be possible. The tornado risk will likely
    be greater with southeastward extent on account of the broader warm
    sector. Scattered severe gusts are also expected given convective
    transport of strong low-level flow to the surface.

    The timing of development remains the biggest uncertainty along with
    the relatively narrow zone of tornado risk in Minnesota. One ore
    more watches are likely early this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80bnRtwnpEcJxSZcwQXPibWwbMrLi1ZfPBcc2LwCK5KEQgA0CCRPRAINqMjqC14b6ykHpG_qm= 1Te9fxw1FvsWsZHO5A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 44109429 45039564 45879603 46339554 46449406 45999278
    45559214 44569190 43879237 43579286 44109429=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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