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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0787

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 17:56:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151756
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151755=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-151930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0787
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1255 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central and northern Arkansas into far southeastern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151755Z - 151930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase into the afternoon if
    storms can become surface based. Severe hail and wind are the main
    concerns. Should storm increase in coverage/intensity, and root into
    the boundary layer, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front persist
    atop a stout capping layer, and have fluctuated in intensity over
    the past few hours. Ahead of these storms, the boundary layer
    continues to destabilize as surface temperatures warm into the mid
    80s F, amid 70+ F dewpoints beneath 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
    yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. 50-70 kts of 500 mb southwesterly flow
    supports over 50 kts of effective bulk shear. Hodographs via RAP
    forecast soundings are relatively straight, suggesting that
    multicells and splitting supercell structures will be the primary
    mode of convection, assuming storms can become surface based. Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings show that a substantial
    degree of convective inhibition remains, so it is plausible that the
    ongoing storms may not intensify further, at least for a while.
    However, if storms manage to become surface based, a more prominent
    severe hail/wind threat may materialize, at which point a Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_y1ygpAQTMy0jhIN6x06MytyytPRhNdNeXEaKLMSA6gRMP-pN8MZj1N-npTgrDA75Iy8MOdky= 3mQQQ3dCVijWgy6XmY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

    LAT...LON 34669451 35699311 36429213 37079085 36898998 36158984
    35279026 35019055 34649154 34459234 34459365 34669451=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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