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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0790

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 18:57:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151857=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-152030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0790
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...portions of central and northeast North Carolina
    into far southeast Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151857Z - 152030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of
    central and northeast NC into far southeast VA. If storms can mature
    and sustain themselves, severe wind/hail may occur. Convective
    trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch.

    DISCUSSION...An agitated CU field is evident across portions of
    central NC, where a heated/mixed boundary layer beneath the eastward
    extent of an EML supports over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong
    west-northwesterly mid-level flow is also beginning to overspread
    the region, contributing to over 35 kts of effective bulk shear,
    which should only increase further into the afternoon. Kinematic and thermodynamic fields in place support multicells and supercells
    should storms mature and become sustained, with severe hail/wind
    being the main concerns. Questions remain how robust and widespread
    convective coverage will become. As such, convective trends are
    being monitored for greater storm coverage and the subsequent need
    of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DluY-lzBazSYeRDC-hVaxE6PkTLzj1xQSpoNEWN-Zhz_xP0CE3nVWl1IkMRtoCPqAL3wfmkq= w9U4sH2pjgRlCgTVTM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

    LAT...LON 35477604 35247656 35177711 35217754 35517841 35797908
    35987923 36247888 36607796 36907730 36767636 36167587
    35477604=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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