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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0791

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 19:16:36 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151915
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151914=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-152115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0791
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 151914Z - 152115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon.
    Supercells capable of all severe hazards are expected within the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus continue to deepen both along a dryline and an
    area of confluence within the Mississippi Valley. Whether storms
    develop within the confluence or when the dryline reaches the
    Mississippi River remains a question. 40-50 kts of effective shear
    across these surface convergence zones will favor supercells as
    storms develop. Large to very large hail will be a concern as well
    as severe wind gusts. The 18Z DVN sounding sampled very steep
    mid-level lapse rates and a long hodograph. Tornado potential will
    also be present. Surface temperature/dewpoint spreads are near 20 F,
    but low-level shear and a supercellular mode will favor low-level
    rotation. The time frame of greater tornado potential will likely be
    22-00Z when the low-level jet increases in southern Wisconsin.

    ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-VQRdscB9n8gtafPL2-6Lmup59n3sjLSjq5e2FwuKiXB4yarGkTzpunSS5rUrDdzOGfy01bD= vxk7BwX7-YZsJbrWM0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 41418999 41579025 41819042 42309082 42909119 43299134
    43549126 44009048 44358993 44438931 43978880 43168862
    42128827 41798867 41418999=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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