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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0794

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 20:22:45 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 152022
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152022=20
    ILZ000-152215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0794
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152022Z - 152215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe winds will be possible
    with supercells that can develop later this afternoon. Watch timing
    is uncertain but is possible later this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus are developing along an eastward moving dryline
    near the Mississippi River. Ahead of this boundary, a strongly
    unstable airmass is in place (low 90s F temperatures and mid 60s to
    low 70s F dewpoints). With the strongest mid-level ascent to the
    northwest of the region, timing of storm initiation as well as storm
    coverage are uncertain. However, given the lack of MLCIN, a isolated
    to widely scattered development appears possible later this
    afternoon. 45-55 kts of effective shear will support supercells. The
    primary hazards will be large to very large hail and severe winds.
    The tornado threat is expected to be less than farther north given
    the slightly veered low-level winds and more sizable
    temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface.

    ..Wendt/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_UTB3L0GonMoegsC8iKP0Z_pwXGLcwJIO5IzXCUsgpkfDrNQ1rxQ7khJs5pY0qEnDizLYNU_= kJ7xHIVWh4nUYc2zWM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 39418987 41039031 41568999 41998852 42058826 41548812
    40218818 39388856 39158871 39048891 39418987=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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