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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0788

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 18:24:45 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 151824
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151823=20
    VAZ000-WVZ000-152000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0788
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0123 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...portions of eastern West Virginia and much of
    Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151823Z - 152000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase over the next few hours.
    Multicells and supercells will be the primary storm mode, with
    severe wind and hail the main threats. A few instances of 2+ inch
    diameter hail are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
    eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus along the
    WV/VA border, driven primarily by boundary layer destabilization,
    along with orographic lift associated with the Appalachians. Surface temperatures have already warmed into the mid to upper 70s F to the
    immediate lee of the Appalachians, where upper 60s F dewpoints,
    beneath the eastward extent of an EML plume, supports 1500+ J/kg
    MLCAPE. The 17Z RNK observed sounding shows 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
    rates and the freezing level around 600 mb, beneath where most of
    the CAPE resides, along with modestly elongated hodographs. Such
    conditions support supercells capable of severe gusts and large
    hail, including a few instances of 2+ inch in diameter stones. Given
    a gradually increasing severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    will eventually be needed.

    ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6StdBBQDuQ1cn84s0wBlyISpxTnYdlavI0EUmy68z6j30EUYH8oqKvZwxTe3zpoYwxN8sWlLU= Mvy2h7FXmIQmx6y5HU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

    LAT...LON 36608017 36768076 37298113 37938092 38388044 38797971
    38967837 38617777 37937732 37257730 36797770 36637848
    36608017=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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