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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0797

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 23:07:56 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 152307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152307=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-160030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0797
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Far northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152307Z - 160030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Line of storms will continue northeastward across
    northeastern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan this evening, posing a
    risk of damaging winds and isolated large hail. Trends are being
    monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from GRB depicts a broken band of
    supercell structures tracking northeastward across north-central
    Wisconsin. These storms are nearing the eastern edge of the middle
    60s dewpoints and related moderate surface-based instability. Given
    the ample buoyancy and favorable low/deep-layer shear extending into
    parts of northeastern WI, a local extension of Tornado Watch 253 may
    be warranted. Farther northeast into Upper Michigan, visible
    satellite imagery depicts stable billow cloud structures, where the
    boundary layer likely remains capped amid lower 60s dewpoints and
    gradually increasing nocturnal static stability. Nevertheless, given
    the well-established line of storms approaching the area, damaging
    winds and isolated severe hail cannot be entirely ruled out.
    Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch over
    parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6N47T4GreJDCM-eJnp0rZtknrNy8nc344gVoGtOtT3yJRUm-sHR-zqRY9BF5tsnn80P75eajc= qPD8TBr7IH4P_fFa-Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

    LAT...LON 45848956 46589032 46939004 47048932 46958870 46598772
    46068681 45568653 45078672 44878742 45348860 45848956=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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