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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0798

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 15 23:52:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 152351
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152350=20
    MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-160115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0798
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0650 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of western/central Lower Michigan into
    northern/central Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 152350Z - 160115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of severe storms capable of producing embedded
    tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will overspread the area
    from the west into tonight. One or more watches will likely be
    issued for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...A broken band of severe storms, including several
    embedded supercell structures, is tracking eastward across far
    eastern Wisconsin -- posing an all-hazards severe risk. As an
    occluded surface front continues eastward, this line of storms, and
    potentially new storms in the pre-frontal warm-advection plume, will
    overspread western/central Lower MI and northern/central IN over the
    next few hours. Earlier diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
    (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
    contributing to moderate/strong surface-based instability. In
    addition, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly perpendicular
    to the ongoing convection will support a band of severe storms with
    embedded supercells and bowing structures. Ample low-level SRH will
    support embedded tornadoes, with damaging winds and isolated large
    hail also possible. One or more watches will likely be issued for
    the area.

    ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9oZn1VipzGbCw1zEOTV3BAEkO5COeEJJjexwH_qdhE4Z9aMTW9cl1hAY-jvYuiNArm5lJh8cd= 7lJC-Dc-lBSD82W9DA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 44458636 44738597 44788540 44628480 44258429 43418422
    42028446 40508504 39818560 39728612 39748671 40018742
    40398740 42278668 43388668 44048663 44458636=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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