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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0799

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 16 00:36:47 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 160036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160036=20
    ILZ000-160130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0799
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern into central Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 255...

    Valid 160036Z - 160130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 255 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe hail and damaging winds are the primary concern,
    though the tornado risk could increase with any sustained supercells
    over the next couple hours.

    DISCUSSION...Severe storms are tracking eastward along the
    north/south-oriented dryline feature across northeastern/central IL.
    Storms have increased in intensity/coverage over central IL (along
    the southern portion of the line), where large-scale ascent in the
    exit region of a midlevel jet is maximized amid strong buoyancy
    (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal inhibition. Given the strong
    buoyancy and 60 kt of 0-6km shear oriented perpendicular to the
    line, these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe hail and
    damaging winds. Sufficient low-level shear (around 30-kt 0-1km per
    ILX VWP) and rich boundary-layer moisture will also support a
    tornado risk, especially with any established supercell structures.=20

    Farther north into northeastern IL, storm coverage has been limited
    owing to weaker large-scale ascent. However, as the dryline feature
    intercepts the old lake breeze boundary, an uptick in severe
    potential will be possible over the next hour or two. Ample
    buoyancy/low-level moisture and sufficient low/deep-layer shear will
    support supercell structures capable of damaging winds, large hail,
    and a tornado or two.

    ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Gzg6jKqRAIvcRkG8ZDrTvLPU6LbKMfLd-5RLBAqgWkQsrmMTt8r05rTbNLhZKHdS0emnagdj= mMg64kgn0fwG_lohFU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 42028774 41548755 40548769 39478828 39088878 39118926
    39278962 40038923 40858875 41668878 42288865 42408828
    42318790 42028774=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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