ACUS11 KWNS 160248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160247=20
MIZ000-160445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0801
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160247Z - 160445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will increase in the next
couple hours with an MCS approaching from the west. A watch will
likely be issued for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is advancing eastward at
around 40-50 kt across western Lower MI -- with a history of severe
wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. Around 40-50 kt of line-orthogonal
deep-layer shear (per GRR/DTX VWP data), and middle 60s
boundary-layer dewpoints, should continue to favor deep/intense
updrafts along the leading-edge gust front. Given the expectation
for this well-established system to be maintained with eastward
extent into parts of eastern Lower MI, posing a continued risk of
severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado or two, a
downstream watch issuance is likely for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!67yO4A5tANYj9SFP_A89DpHmgy0omrnRcnBDWk5RGtaKSHQ9wyBmgP4YZiv7KZWEywpQ5HzI-= qGiucejtYWI0DudGDU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 42118438 42458436 43978453 44688443 44848404 44738345
44378298 43368272 42498281 42028312 41808366 41798415
42118438=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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